SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250033
ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX INCLUDING
METROPLEX...EXTREME SERN OK...WRN AR...EXTREME SWRN MO.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 174...176...177...
VALID 250033Z - 250230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
174...176...177...CONTINUES.
THOSE COUNTIES OF ORIGINAL 174 FROM BROWN/COMANCHE/HAMILTON SWWD
HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO NEWER WW 179. WW 174 IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 1Z...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION REMAINING OVER
AREA FROM STEPHENS/PALO PINTO COUNTIES ENEWD ACROSS METROPLEX
ATTM...WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO COVER THOSE
AREAS. GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT IN ITS PATH...RELATIVELY
DISCRETE PALO PINTO COUNTY STORM MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND MOVE
TOWARD SWRN PORTIONS METROPLEX. FARTHER NE...DAMAGING WIND REPORTED
IN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK DURING PAST HOUR FROM BOW ECHO MOVING TOWARD
NERN CORNER OF WW 176 AND SERN PORTION WW 177...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS SEVIER/HOWARD/POLK/MONTGOMERY/PRICE
COUNTIES AR. SVR POTENTIAL FARTHER N IS MORE MRGL...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OZARKS WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS PERSISTENT COOL POCKET THAT
IS MINIMIZING THETAE IN INFLOW LAYER. RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY AND
LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN LZK SOUNDING ALSO MAY PORTEND MRGL SVR
POTENTIAL EWD OVER CENTRAL/NRN AR.
PRE-STORM AIR MASS FROM SWRN AR SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SVR BASED ON 00Z FWD RAOB...PAT PROFILER
DATA...VARIOUS VWP...AND MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. PRIND 0-1 KM SRH
OF AT LEAST 250-300 J/KG WILL CONTINUE OVER REGION BENEATH 40-50 KT
LLJ PRESENTLY OBSERVED. LLJ ALSO SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AFTER
ABOUT 2Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. THIS DECOUPLING WILL BE
GRADUAL ENOUGH TO KEEP EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED AT OR VERY
NEAR SFC AND HELP TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
.EDWARDS.. 04/25/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
32159502 31879665 31989774 32259840 32559828 32939726
33659570 34319453 35489426 36849439 36819329 34849328
33879298
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