MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0608

ACUS11 KWNS 272333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272333
VAZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272333Z - 280100Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS FAR ERN VA FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS.
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT
A WW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW ACROSS ERN VA WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA INTO CNTRL NC. A COUPLE OF SEVERE
STORMS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SFC LOW IN AN AREA OF LOCALLY
ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1200
J/KG. THE WAKEFIELD VA WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
STEEP...TEMPS ALOFT SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL APPEAR COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO EXIST DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-64.
SFC TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THIS SHOULD
REDUCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE GRADUALLY EWD EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.BROYLES.. 04/27/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

37117601 37107651 37457666 37807639 37927602 37757558
37557551 37167559

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