SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282207
TXZ000-282330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282207Z - 282330Z
AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TX
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MARINE FRONT MOVING NEWD
ACROSS SOUTH TX. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE NEAR 70 F AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH A LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL DRIFTING
SLOWLY NWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-37 CORRIDOR. LOCAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
VEERING WINDS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THOUGH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENT
FOR ROTATING STORMS...THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THE SLOW FORWARD STORM MOTION. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS MAINLY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE IN A WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.
.BROYLES.. 04/28/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
28769776 27229852 27419919 28929859 29489830 29699788
29539754 29249754
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