SWODY1
SPC AC 241626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
TX...
..UPPER MS VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN EXPANSIVE SQUALL
LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM WESTERN WI SOUTHWARD INTO
TX/OK. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TODAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT STRONG
HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF WI/EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S...WITH
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THIS
REGION. COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH MORE
INTENSE STORMS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER
FEATURE DEPARTS AND NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.
..SOUTHWEST TX...
SQUALL LINE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH TX TO NEAR SJT.
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF CONVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE OVER
2000 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS...THIS REGION
IS SOUTH OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN AREA OF RELATIVELY
WEAK DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 KNOTS/. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE DAVIS MTNS OF SOUTHWEST TX
WHERE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER
WINDS ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO MID LEVEL CAPPING.
..MO/AR/OK/NORTH TX...
CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST AR/EASTERN OK
WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR. ISOLATED CELLS ALONG LINE MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO
SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...WEAKENING WINDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL LESSEN
VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THUS...CONCENTRATED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
.HART/GUYER.. 05/24/2007
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