SWODY1
SPC AC 311655
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2007
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK
PANHANDLE...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO ERN NM AND ERN CO...INTO SERN SD SWD
INTO THE NWRN HALF OF OK....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM S CENTRAL
NEB INTO NWRN VA....
..SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LARGE
VORTEX CENTERED OVER WRN ND/SD AND COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL HALF OF THE U.S. MODELS SEEM TO VARY IN SOLUTIONS AS
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATE
CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CO...THEN EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER AND UPPER MS RIVER AREAS.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING REMAINS FIRM OFF THE SRN CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
AND OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR CUT HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS...BUT MANY OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER AREAS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE NAM...OLD
GFS AND NGM DEVELOP 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO
CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO SWRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES DEPICT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM BETWEEN
MAF - LBB EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX INTO EXTREME SERN
OK. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S AND
MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-3000 J/KG.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX WITH MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-55 KT. THIS
SIGNALS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL THEN FOR MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY OVER ERN PARTS OF CO INTO NERN NM...BUT MORE LIKELY EARLY
TONIGHT ALONG THE CO/NEB BORDER INTO EXTREME WRN KS AND ALONG THE
NRN NM/TX BORDER WHERE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE
LOCATED. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD THEN DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENHANCES UVVS
ACROSS KS INTO NEB... AND ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE
THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES INITIALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD AGGREGATE INTO MORE LINEAR MODE
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MAIN THREAT SHOULD THEN BECOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH MCS/MCC TONIGHT.
..PARTS OF S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NWRN VA...
RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATES BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 10-12C DEW
POINTS FROM SC NWD THRU CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NY STATE.
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING.
THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS.
.MCCARTHY/SCHNEIDER.. 05/31/2007
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