DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 282002
SWODY1
SPC AC 282000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...

..NRN PLAINS...
STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE BLACK
HILLS SWWD INTO WY/CO/THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE...BUT AIRMASS NE OF THE
BLACK HILLS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS CAPPED -- PER AFTERNOON
RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

HOWEVER...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S CONTRIBUTING TO 2000 TO
3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT CONTINUED UVV INVOF
SURFACE FRONT/AHEAD OF SLOWLY-ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WEAKENING CAP WITH TIME...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- AND THUS MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
-- WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ND...WHERE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS --
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXTEND SWWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS SD
WHERE WEAKER SHEAR SUGGESTS MORE MULTICELL STORM MODE.

..MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
DELMARVA WWD INTO WV...AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
APPALACHIANS SWD INTO ERN TN/WRN NC. WITH SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL VA NWD...A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF VA/MD/DE/SRN NJ THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTES TO A
DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.

.GOSS.. 05/28/2007

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