SWODY1
SPC AC 311952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS...
..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERAL BANDS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXIST ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW OVER
SD. MOST ACTIVE BANDS OF POTENTIAL AND/OR ONGOING TSTMS SEEM TO BE
SITUATED FROM: 1/ SERN-SCNTRL NEB SWWD INTO NWRN KS AND EXTREME NERN
CO ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/LEE TROUGH -AND- 2/ SCNTRL SD SWWD INTO
NERN CO ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST ACTIVE INTO THIS
EVENING. SATL/PROFILERS SHOW EVIDENCE OF A 50+ KT H5 JET NOSING EWD
FROM CO TOWARD KS LATE THIS AFTN WITH LEFT-EXIT REGION LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE MDT RISK AREA BY EARLY EVE. CONTINUED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO TSTMS BACKBUILDING/DEVELOPING SWWD FROM ONGOING NEB
MCS INTO WRN KS...SERN CO AND POSSIBLY THE OK/TX PNHDLS BY 21-23Z.
PROFILER HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH
INITIAL STORMS ALONG SRN PARTS OF THE MDT RISK WHERE SUBSTANTIAL 60S
SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD ADVECT NWD BY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM SD INTO CNTRL NEB AND NERN CO SHOULD PRODUCE AT
LEAST ISOLD HAIL...THOUGH INFLUENCE OF THE TSTM COMPLEXES TO THE
SOUTH SHOULD LIMIT INFLOW SOMEWHAT.
SEVERAL MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS KS...NWRN/WRN OK AND
PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE OF A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KS AND NWRN OK CLOSER TO
THE MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
..W TX/SERN NM...
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TX AND NM LATE
AFTN/EVE...AIDED BY A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SRN
PLATEAU. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...THOUGH 40-50 KT
H3-H25 FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VENTING AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVE
AND MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
..ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS LIKELY BEING
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE UPR
RIDGE. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABOUT
30 KT OF NWLY H5 FLOW. TSTMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LWR HUDSON
VLY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS DEEPLY MIXED.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. SRN
BOUNDS/ERN EDGES OF THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY MARINE
ENVIRONMENT AND BACKDOOR FRONT.
..CNTRL APLCNS...
SCT TSTMS CONTINUE BENEATH WARM UPR RIDGE...FAVORING THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APLCNS. ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS AND
OR/HAIL APPROACHING SVR LEVELS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH SUNSET.
..MID/LWR MS VLY...
A FEW TSTMS WILL FAVOR WRN EDGE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT SITUATED FROM
THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE LWR MS VLY. STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FROM ECNTRL LA/WCNTRL MS SWD TO THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
SRN LA. ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT UNTIL
JUST AFTER SUNSET.
.RACY.. 05/31/2007
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