DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 302001
SWODY1
SPC AC 301959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MN/IA AND
VICINITY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN TX...

..TX...
ARCING/GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING SEWD
ACROSS NRN LA AND ERN TX...WITHIN WEAKLY-SHEARED BUT
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE MARGINAL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL
/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS MCS...THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

STORM REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FURTHER NW INVOF THE TRAILING
OUTFLOW FROM THIS MCS...INTO PARTS OF WRN N TX. HERE...VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. SHOULD
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...MODEST/SELY NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT -- WHICH WOULD
LIKELY THEN MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT.

..MN/IA AND VICINITY...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM SERN ND...MN...AND WI SSWWD INTO ERN
KS/MO/NERN OK. WHILE MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS
THIS REGION ON SERN/ERN FRINGE OF UPPER LOW...FLOW IS LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL -- AND MERIDIONAL/PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/ SUGGESTS THAT MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS EXTREME ERN PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN/WRN IA...JUST E OF THE UPPER LOW. ACROSS
THIS REGION...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL HAIL...AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS AIRMASS STABILIZES.

.GOSS.. 05/30/2007

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