SWODY2
SPC AC 041732
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS STATES...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD MAKE LITTLE
EWD PROGRESS DAY 2...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. SSWLY FLOW ALOFT
IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS 80 KT
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND THE SRN AND ERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH.
AS THIS JET STREAK SPREADS NNEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...SURFACE LOW
SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT NWD FROM ERN CO INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. DRYLINE TRAILING SWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
THE WRN PLAINS...AND THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE KS/NEB
AREA SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..THE PLAINS...
ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY-WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DAY 2 ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...AS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE AREA AHEAD OF WRN
U.S. TROUGH.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTICULARLY FROM NEB NWD IN ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION N OF WARM FRONT. THOUGH THE ONGOING CONVECTION
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES COMPLICATE THE DEVELOPING SCENARIO
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE
WITH AREAS OF STRONG HEATING TO YIELD MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON.
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE AND ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
JET STREAK SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS INVOF
DRYLINE...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS NEB NEAR
LOW/WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS OK...AND INTO TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLY/MERIDIONAL -- PARTICULARLY
FROM NRN KS/INTO NEB...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND SOME
LOW-LEVEL VEERING SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS TO RAPIDLY
ACQUIRE ROTATION. VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED -- AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. AREA OF GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM CENTRAL AND INTO NWRN NEB NEAR
LOW/WARM FRONT...AND SWD IN A CORRIDOR ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK.
STORMS/SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SPREADING EWD/NEWD WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL JET
DIURNALLY AMPLIFIES.
.GOSS.. 05/04/2007
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