SWODY2
SPC AC 281734
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...WITH ONE LOW
MOVING FROM SD INTO NRN MN AND A SECOND FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION.
..CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS E OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE. HOWEVER...CAPPING INVERSION ALONG DRYLINE
SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY S OF THE TX
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...FOCUSED AREA OF UVV INVOF SURFACE LOW --
FORECAST OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON --
SHOULD HELP WEAKEN CAP SUPPORTING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT...FROM
SERN CO IN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW N OF LOW INTO WRN KS/THE TX OH
PANHANDLES INVOF LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE.
GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET AND 30 TO 40 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE WITH NNEWD EXTENT ALONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS KS AND NEB...WHERE A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND
OK AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES/VEERS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER THIS
AREA IN ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE...SUPPORTING A FEW LOCALLY-STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
UPDRAFT INTENSITY MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY MODERATE /AROUND 30
KT/ SWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXISTS. ALONG
WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...A LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL STABILIZATION.
.GOSS.. 05/28/2007
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