SWODY3
SPC AC 160723
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..NORTHERN PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL FLATTEN DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY3 PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN
THE 40S WITHIN LOW LEVEL ZONE OF CONVERGENCE FROM SW-NE MT.
PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AS TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL INTO THE MID 80S OVER THE
PLAINS OF MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS DUE TO CAPPING ISSUES...HOWEVER
A FEW STRONG HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE FARTHER WEST OVER
MT. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEAR A BIT TOO MEAGER TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY CERTAINLY OCCUR WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.
..SRN NEW MEXICO/WEST TX...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SWRN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ULTIMATELY TURNING SEWD INTO FAR WEST TX ABOUT PEAK HEATING
FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONGER
STORMS MAY WEAKLY ROTATE DUE TO DEEP VEERING FLOW...THOUGH
ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE STUNTED WITHIN WEAK
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY...MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE.
.DARROW.. 05/16/2007
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