SWOD48
SPC AC 130821
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD AHEAD OF OH
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH SFC FRONT MAY NOT MOVE OFFSHORE
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHERE SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PROVE HOSTILE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK FLOW/INSTABILITY ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS.
.DARROW.. 05/13/2007
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