SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032146
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-032245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AR...NERN LA...WCNTRL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032146Z - 032245Z
A TSTM LINE SEGMENT HAS FORMED ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION ACROSS SERN AR AND NCNTRL LA. AIR MASS ALONG THE MS RVR
BETWEEN THESE STORMS AND RESIDUAL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL
MS HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S RESULTING
IN MLCAPES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. INSPECTION OF REGIONAL VWPS SUGGESTS
THAT THE PRIMARY BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW AOA 45 KTS WILL SKIRT
FARTHER S ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. NONETHELESS...SHV VWP SHOWS THAT THE MCV HAS ITS OWN
ENHANCED FLOW WITH 40-45 KTS OF WLY WINDS AROUND 1KM. PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR...BUT GIVEN THE
COLLECTIVE COLD POOL AND THE MEAN WLY FLOW REGIME...THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SPIN-UP AS THEY
MOVE TOWARD THE MS RVR VLY AND INTO WCNTRL MS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.RACY.. 05/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
32119207 32429201 32789196 33119201 33479122 33719008
32818988 32319028
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