SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032349
TXZ000-040045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032349Z - 040045Z
ISOLD SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY...PARTIALLY
INDUCED BY SELY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE DOWNSTREAM MCS. MESOANALYSIS
PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FROM COOKE COUNTY SWWD ACROSS DFW METROPLEX
THEN SWWD INTO HAMILTON COUNTY.
HEATING WAS MINIMAL...BUT JUST SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
GIVEN THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. 00Z FWD
SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND 39 KT OF 0-6KM
SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW LCLS. BUT...MAIN
NEGATIVE AGAINST MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM INITIATION HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS.
.RACY.. 05/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
31749825 32289768 32889719 32969683 32759666 32259691
31879729 31619785
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