SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041240
MSZ000-LAZ000-041515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...LA...MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041240Z - 041515Z
TSTM HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE MS DELTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT ACTIVITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR GREATER UPSCALE ORGANIZATION
LATER THIS MORNING...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL...THROUGH LATE MORNING.
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM
FRONT DRAPED FROM SCNTRL TO SERN LA HAS LED TO A NUMBER OF STRONG TO
INTENSE STORMS ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS EARLY TODAY. LIFT ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE WAS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL
JET STREAK WITH WNWLY FLOW OF ABOUT 40KT. VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS
BEEN STREAMING INTO THE REGION OF ASCENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL
TSTMS THROUGH THE MORNING...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. WHILE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY
PEAKED IN INTENSITY...UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT/BACKBUILDING REMAINS
POSSIBLE GIVEN MOIST INFLOW AND LITTLE INHIBITION INDICATED ON
LATEST LCH RAOB.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL
BOOST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GREATER COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND A CHANCE
OF DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM COVERAGE AND AMBIENT INSTABILITY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF THIS SCENARIO APPEARS MORE
CERTAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
.CARBIN.. 05/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
29919039 30319186 31009300 31579265 31959171 31889056
31458969 30788922 30198945
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