SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050410
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-050545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK...ERN OK PNHDL...ERN TX
PNHDL...LOW ROLLING PLAINS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 227...
VALID 050410Z - 050545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 227 CONTINUES.
THE STRONG...LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL NW OF PRATT KS CONTINUES
TO MOVE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW WITH CALCULATED 0-1KM SRH
OF OVER 400 M2/S2. OTHER STORMS...SOME LEFT-SPLITS FROM THE
TORNADIC STORM...WERE MOVING NWD THROUGH CNTRL KS JUST S OF I-70.
DOWNSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION WAS INCREASING...BUT STILL
SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR POTENTIAL TORNADOES...AT LEAST TO THE KS
I-135/STATE ROUTE 81 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
EXPAND AND INCREASE AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE...NOW CROSSING ERN NM/SRN
CO...SWINGS NEWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TX/OK...MOISTURE HAS MOVED WWD PAST KDDC...KAMA
AND KLBB. THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF TSTM INITIATION AS
THE IMPULSE OVER ERN NM/SRN CO EJECTS NEWD. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM ERN TX
PNHDL INTO SWRN KS. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR. GIVEN A STORM...SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
TORNADO.
.RACY.. 05/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
33670089 36770062 37440037 38380030 38889969 38879816
37599801 36279838 35159928 33829987
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