SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101830
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-102100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...CENTRAL/NERN ID...FAR NWRN WY AND
PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101830Z - 102100Z
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 2-3
HRS. ISOLATED SVR WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE
THEN.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SVRL AREAS OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES...WITH THE PRIMARY SFC LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ID
MTNS. RECENT TRENDS IN SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THIS SFC LOW WAS
DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL ORE. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH A SFC
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS /CO-LOCATED WITH EARLIER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME AND SHOWERS/ EXTENDED WSW-ENE FROM NERN ORE INTO
WCENTRAL MT. ALONG THIS AXIS...DEWPTS ARE IN THE 48-52 DEG F RANGE.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS..SBCAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 1200-1700 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS.
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVERSPREADING THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SFC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FAR
WRN MT /NEAR MSO/ TO JUST NORTH OF YELLOWSTONE AND EWD ALONG THE
MT/WY BORDER. ENELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLOWLY DEEPENING MOIST LAYER WITH SFC
DEWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 44-48 DEG F RANGE BY 21Z. THIS
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MUCAPES RISING TO
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER
CENTRAL/SCENTRAL MT AND FAR NWRN WY...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF DEEPER
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED DMGG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY SVR THREAT IN THIS AREA AS TSTMS MOVE EWD FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ID/WRN MT.
.CROSBIE.. 05/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT...
46391446 45601695 44781829 43911824 43471740 43591509
43441190 44090897 45230797 47300830 47680944
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