SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101956
TXZ000-102200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101956Z - 102200Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS S CNTRL AND SERN TX AND MOVE
SEWD INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
A WELL DEFINED OCCLUDED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL TX. VORT
MAX ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED JUST EAST
OF SAN ANGELO MOVING SEWD. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS RATHER WEAK.
HOWEVER...NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST INCLUDING ONE THAT EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL TX SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL TX NEAR HONDO. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
80S...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST IN THIS REGION WITH 6.5
C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ALONG WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COLDER
AIR ALOFT EXISTS. FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM IS RATHER WEAK...BUT
A BAND OF 40 KT WLY TO NWLY 500 MB WINDS EXIST ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS S CNTRL AND S TX. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP MID LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
SEWD MOVING CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITHIN REGION OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX ACROSS S CNTRL TX. MOST STORMS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN MULTICELL IN CHARACTER...BUT SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
.DIAL.. 05/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
28499642 28079811 28299971 29429990 30179824 31289697
30979517 29559482
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