SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131558
FLZ000-131800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131558Z - 131800Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN THROUGH CNTRL FL
AND SPREAD SSEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS AREA WILL BE
UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z UPDATE...AND TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC SWWD
THROUGH NRN FL AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING IS OCCURRING IN WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AN
EXCEPTION IS OVER PARTS OF W CNTRL THROUGH S FL WHERE DEWPOINTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS ARE MIXING INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE TO PRESENCE OF A
MORE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON THE MORNING RAOBS.
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE
NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF CNTRL FL. AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AN MCV WAS ALO
INDICATED JUST OFF THE SERN GA COAST MOVING SWD...BUT MOST OF THE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE.
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL AND PULSE
STORMS...BUT THE COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR SOME STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.
.DIAL.. 05/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
30048152 29358122 27738054 26708014 26218120 27848232
28978247 29558247
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