SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191941
MTZ000-WYZ000-192045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL MT...N-CENTRAL/NERN WY.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191941Z - 192045Z
WW MAY BE REQUIRED PORTIONS MT. TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD BIL-LWT-GTF AREA..WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. SVR
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO HIGH PLAINS...WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH EXPECTED HIGH LCL AND DOWNDRAFT EVAPORATION/COOLING
POTENTIAL INDICATE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM.
SFC AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION GENERALLY IS CHARACTERIZED BY
MID-UPPER 40S DEW POINTS...THOUGH PLUME OF LOW 50S EXTENDING FROM
MLS WWD ACROSS BIL AREA AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY MAY BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH 21Z AS EFFECTS OF MOIST ADVECTION AND VERTICAL MIXING ARE
COUNTERBALANCED. ASSOCIATED MOIST AXIS IS ANALYZED JUST N OF SFC
FRONTAL ZONE ANALYZED NEAR BTM-LVM-BIL LINE ESEWD ACROSS NWRN
SD...WITH WEAK LOW EVIDENT NEAR BZN AS OF 19Z. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY...AS ELY FLOW COMPONENT TO ITS N CONTRIBUTES
FAVORABLY TO ENLARGEMENT OF BOTH LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES. VWP AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45-55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150 J/KG AND 0-3 KM
SRH 200-300 J/KG...OVER THAT PORTION OF W-CENTRAL THROUGH S-CENTRAL
MT E OF MOUNTAINS. THIS IS ALSO INVOF MOIST AXIS WHERE MLCAPES
AROUND 1500 J/KG MAY BE MAINTAINED.
WIDELY SCATTERED CB ALSO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN WY...MOVING EWD OFF
WIND RIVER...ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. WEAKER DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES AND MOISTURE ARE EVIDENT WITH SWD EXTENT INTO
N-CENTRAL/NERN WY IN LEE OF THOSE RANGES...INDICATING LESS ORGANIZED
AND MORE ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT.
.EDWARDS.. 05/19/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...
43560935 44970954 45691101 46051209 46501286 47391238
47581105 47640978 47060837 46460670 45240562 44230557
43550615 43460707
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