MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0838

ACUS11 KWNS 192343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192343
MTZ000-WYZ000-200115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280...

VALID 192343Z - 200115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SERN MT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER EAST INTO SERN MT.

AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S EXTENDS FROM SE THROUGH
CNTRL MT ON THE N SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT. MLCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG EXISTS ALONG THIS THETA-E AXIS. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED AS THEY SPREAD NEWD INTO
STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN MT. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT IS
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. SIZE OF LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ERN MT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE
STORMS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL MT MAY EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH NERN MT WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE.
SOME DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY OCCUR IN NERN MT LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN FROM CNTRL THROUGH SERN MT NEXT FEW HOURS.

.DIAL.. 05/19/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

44920477 45110788 45881067 47501086 47510879 45910428

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