SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241949
TXZ000-242215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241949Z - 242215Z
STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF STALLING COLD FRONT FROM THE
PERMIAN BASIN NEWD TO THE DFW METRO AREA. WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...AOB
20KT...AND WEAK LARGER SCALE FORCING...SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY PLANNED ACROSS
THE REGION.
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM FORT STOCKTON AREA EWD ALONG A BWD-SEP-FTW LINE WAS
AIDING DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL ZONE APPEARS TO BE STALLING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED WITH WEAK WSWLY MEAN-LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING ALONG THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW
CIRCULATION HAS OVERCOME CAPPING AND RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ABOUT 1500 J/KG
MLCAPE. WITH WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...STORM UPDRAFTS WILL BE
POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ONLY A FEW LONGER-LIVED PULSE AND OCCASIONAL
MULTICELL STORMS POSING ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT. RECENT TRENDS
ALSO SUGGEST THAT STORM MERGERS MAY ENHANCE HAIL AND DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAIN.
STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WEST TX/TRANS-PECOS REGION COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
CONCENTRATION...AND SOME CHANCE AT UPSCALE ORGANIZATION...ACROSS
THIS AREA. EVEN HERE...HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AND
GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY LIKELY RESULT FROM RANDOM AND DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST STORM INTERACTIONS.
GIVEN THE SHORT-LIVED AND LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL...A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
.CARBIN.. 05/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
32989787 32149775 30830076 30310287 31640364 31990112
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