SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261516
TXZ000-261745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 261516Z - 261745Z
SLOW MOVING MESOLOW APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ACROSS PARTS OF COLORADO...AUSTIN...AND PERHAPS WASHINGTON COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MESOLOW APPEARS TO HAVE EVOLVED IN LARGER SCALE
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. THE FOCUSED
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ACT
ON VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NNEWD FROM
COLORADO COUNTY. PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER AROUND 4KM WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN GENERALLY WEAK FLOW REGIME RESULTING
IN A FORWARD SPEED UNDER 15KT.
IN ADDITION FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RECENT LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WITH THIS MESOLOW
MAY BE STRENGTHENING. GIVEN VERY LOW LFC AND SLIGHT DIURNAL WARMING
AHEAD OF THE TSTM COMPLEX...A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY
THE SMALL-SCALE TSTM CIRCULATION.
.CARBIN.. 05/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...
29559675 29799672 30179654 30279637 29759640
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment