MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0897

ACUS11 KWNS 261940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261940
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261940Z - 262115Z

POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING FROM NERN IS INTO PARTS OF ERN MN AND WRN/NWRN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WITHIN THE HOUR.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO ERN MN/WRN WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DESPITE
CURRENTLY LIMITED INSTABILITY...SURFACE WARM AXIS HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. THIS WARM
PLUME...WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
OVERSPREADING LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM SERN MN TO THE MN/WI BORDER
AREA. FORCING/LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN DPVA REGION OF
ASSOCIATED COMPACT MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION APPEAR VERY
SUPPORTIVE FOR CELL/UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT STORMS WITH
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM
NERN IA ACROSS WRN WI ATTM AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED
SOON FOR THESE AREAS SHORTLY.

FARTHER NORTH...A FEW STRONG CELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG
DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WILL LEND SUPPORT TO SOME STORMS THIS
AREA...WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY PRECLUDE A WATCH THIS FAR NORTH.

.CARBIN.. 05/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

46909293 46889250 46029096 43909010 42629134 42989248
44569221 46509295

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