SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271645
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-271815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...SWRN PA...WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271645Z - 271815Z
TSTM HAVE RECENTLY ERUPTED ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS/WIND
SHIFT ACROSS CNTRL OH. IT IS PSBL THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY GO ON TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH APPEARS POSSIBLE IF STORMS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SUBTLE WIND PRE-FRONTAL SHIFT ACROSS CNTRL OH APPEARS TO HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE WARM AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST BENEATH ABOUT 30KT OF WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. ILN MORNING SOUNDING ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS RESULTS IN MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ENVIRONMENT
IS FURTHER DEPICTED IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF DCAPE FIELDS WHICH
INDICATE CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING STORMS COULD BEGIN TO
SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS AS AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES.
MID LEVEL FLOW AND OVERALL FORCING APPEAR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...IF THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT A
GREATER WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EVOLVING...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE.
.CARBIN.. 05/27/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
39208156 38738318 39288356 40608203 41558033 41767927
41167849 40007892
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