MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0903

ACUS11 KWNS 271927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271926
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...SWRN NE...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271926Z - 272130Z

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
LANDSPOUT TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS A SMALL REGION OF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA AND A WATCH IS NOT
BEING PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

AS STRONG HEATING HAS OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...TCU/CB ARE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN
PLAINS OF CO ATTM. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF
STRONG DESTABILIZATION WHERE OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATES MLCAPE LOCALLY
GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. OTHER UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE TAKING ROOT NEAR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BACKDOOR OUTFLOW DRAPED ACROSS SWRN NEB. DENVER
CYCLONE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY AID ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS BUT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT BOTH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.

WHILE ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN SOME HAIL POTENTIAL... STORMS
OVER THE PLAINS WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST
TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPE...AND AMBIENT LOW LEVEL VORTICITY NEAR
VARIOUS WEAK BOUNDARIES. WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK WLY FLOW ALOFT
BUT SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER TO PROMOTE
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERHAPS A FEW LANDSPOUT TORNADOES. GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER HAIL.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO A FEW COUNTIES GIVEN
WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING/FLOW RESTRICTING A MORE PROLONGED/EXTENSIVE
REGION OF SEVERE RISK. THUS...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.

.CARBIN.. 05/27/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

39500048 39580198 39410281 39160369 39160498 39610538
40270540 40650533 41040499 41420449 41240427 40950423
40680417 40620392 40780358 40970354 41530345 41820328
41990281 41500235 40450048 40040019

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