SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272030
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-272130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...MD...DC...NRN AND ERN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 272030Z - 272130Z
A FEW CLUSTERS OF INTENSE PULSE TO MARGINALLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
SCNTRL PA AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SWWD INTO NRN VA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SERN
PA...NRN VA...AND MD THROUGH THIS EVENING POSING SOME THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE SHORTLY.
STRONG HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS NRN VA AND SRN PA WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HIGH INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS AIDED ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE HAS
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN VA. BAND OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW /20-30 KT AT 500 MB/...ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS MIGHT RESULT IN 1) STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AID POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION AND 2) STEERING FLOW TO AID IN MOVING STRONG STORMS EWD
TOWARD POTENTIALLY GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA AND
POTOMAC RIVER VALLEYS. THUS...A WATCH MAY BE COORDINATED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION SHORTLY.
.CARBIN.. 05/27/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
39377848 40537753 40557694 39987617 37897723 37817822
37887859 38077901
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