SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281628
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-281800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NJ AND THE NRN DELMARVA PEN IN NRN/WRN
VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281628Z - 281800Z
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...WELL
TO THE NORTH OF REGION. HOWEVER...ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW FIELD... STRONG
SURFACE HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION FROM PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...AND ALONG/TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
80S...MIXED LAYER CAPE PROBABLY WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION IS
ALREADY BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE...AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES INITIATION
OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS IS LIKELY DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING MAY ULTIMATELY
LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS IN ACTIVITY THAT FORMS. THOUGH NOT STRONG...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UP TO AROUND 30 KTS COULD ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ATLANTIC CITY NJ AREA BY THE 18-20Z
TIME FRAME.
.KERR.. 05/28/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
37018073 37678016 38477944 39017877 39437758 39557633
39747543 39917469 39567432 38947528 38577668 38237701
37347875 36608029
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