MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0911

ACUS11 KWNS 282017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282017
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-282215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 282017Z - 282215Z

A WATCH WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING TIMING DUE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL INHIBITION.

STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING WITHIN NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTH OF PIERRE SD INTO THE VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK ND. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSOLATION HAVE RAISED MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000-3000
J/KG...BENEATH PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS STILL BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGE...
DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TOWARD THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES. AND...WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS IS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH HAS
INCREASED TO 40 KT...IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NEAR/NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE/GRAND FORKS.
AND...THIS SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
FLOW AND STRONG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO SEEM
POSSIBLE.

IT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT LOCALIZED WEAKENING OF CAP COULD OCCUR
BY 22-23Z...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...WEST OF JAMESTOWN
ND...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION IS MORE PROBABLE. IF
THIS OCCURS...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL
RISK FOR TORNADOES.

.KERR.. 05/28/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

47659990 48599977 49009838 49169726 48369638 47609630
47029781 44639940 44660041 46549962

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