SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301720
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-301845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301720Z - 301845Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH LAGS TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THE WARM SECTOR
OF SURFACE LOW CENTER...NOW SOUTHWEST OF WATERTOWN SD. THIS WILL
TEND TO LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...
THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY MOIST...AND ENOUGH
INSOLATION IS OCCURRING TO INCREASE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
500 J/KG. THIS COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY EVIDENT...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING ACCOMPANYING A LOBE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY
LIFTING TO THE EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS...THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS DESTABILIZATION
PROCEEDS...INTENSIFICATION INTO LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. WHILE HAIL POTENTIAL
SEEMS MINIMAL...BELT OF 30-40 KT MEAN CLOUD BEARING FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVE FAST STORM MOTIONS...AND A RISK FOR GUSTY
WINDS WHICH COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY
BE A RISK FOR GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES... SUPPORTED BY
SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR... SHEAR ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF LOW INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA...AND
PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY.
.KERR.. 05/30/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
45769859 47089738 48169668 48419531 47749424 46149458
44899415 43189451 43009589 44039689 44899748
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