SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311733
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-311900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311733Z - 311900Z
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WEST OF MCCOOK. THIS APPEARS GENERALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH BELT OF
40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW NOW NOSING EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AND
..AS ONGOING STORMS SPREAD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED THROUGH 20-21Z. LIKELY INITIALLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE...FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH PEAK HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH SLOWLY EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
.KERR.. 05/31/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
40050208 40450053 41189939 40699770 39659774 37760007
37220258 37910359 39240263 39630252
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