SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311854
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-312030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 311854Z - 312030Z
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MAY BE SUPPORTED
BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE ROUNDING THE CREST OF UPPER
RIDGE. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF 30 KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS BECOMING DEEPLY MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 90F AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP ORGANIZE A
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOL NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH 21-22Z...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE
VIGOR OF NEW UPDRAFTS IN DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT MAY FAVOR GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...AND ALONG
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL...PERHAPS APPROACHING THE NEW YORK
CITY AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER MARINE AIR MASS.
.KERR.. 05/31/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...BGM...
43227482 43157399 42697356 42327337 42017319 41677331
41457360 41347400 41647447 42297447
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