SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311933
NMZ000-312100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 311933Z - 312100Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WHERE CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT INITIATION OF SCATTERED
STORMS WILL OCCUR BY 21-22Z ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
BROAD SUBTROPICAL STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50+ KT 300-250 MB FLOW
IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. AND...IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.KERR.. 05/31/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
32440491 33070554 33720551 34350551 35290558 36020553
36470525 36650426 36860311 35440391 34450409 33630372
33100358 32480373
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