SWODY1
SPC AC 092003
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2007
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND SERN VA...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN LA AND NRN TX THROUGH
SRN AND CNTRL OK...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR WRN TX THROUGH NM AND
SERN CO...
..NRN TX THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL OK...
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF NWD RETREATING
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SRN OK SEWD THROUGH NE TX AND NRN LA. STRONG
SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH 6.5-7 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND
LOWER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THIS REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF FRONT AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND ANY REMAINING CAP
WEAKENS. PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE IS RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER FLOW
WITH VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SOME UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..FAR W TX THROUGH NM AND SERN CO...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 1073 ISSUED AT 1935 UTC.
..SERN VA THROUGH ERN CAROLINAS...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NC. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER NW...CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS FLAT AND WV
IMAGERY SUGGEST LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY BE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. MOREOVER...INLAND CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK WITH NWLY SURFACE
FLOW. THESE LIMITING FACTORS INCREASE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...A WEAK
IMPULSE ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE IS ADVANCING SEWD INTO
THE APPALACHIANS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A FEW STORMS MIGHT
DEVELOP OUT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD SPREADING SEWD. ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT INTERCEPTS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL.
..ND THROUGH NRN MN...
ISOLATED STORMS CURRENTLY FROM ND INTO NWRN MN ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. SMALL
HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA.
..SERN NEB THROUGH ERN KS...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS NWD ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT IN THIS REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES
LIFT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
.DIAL.. 06/09/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment