SWODY1
SPC AC 261953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...
..NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED MOVING EWD INTO THE ARROWHEAD
REGION OF MN SWWD INTO SWRN MN...WITH BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
INCREASING ALONG NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO...WHILE A
BETTER DEFINED VORT MAX REMAIN IN PLACE OF MANITOBA.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING /REFERENCE WW 458 AND
ASSOCIATED SWOMCDS FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE/. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED LINES OVER
NERN MN INTO PARTS OF THE U.P. OF MI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES.
..CENTRAL CO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR I-70 IN NWRN KS/FAR ERN
CO AT 19Z NWWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF CENTRAL/NRN CO. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...ADDITIONAL SURFACE WIND SHIFT/FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OK
PANHANDLE INTO S-CENTRAL CO. INVOF AND AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT...
DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F OVER CENTRAL
CO...WITH LOWER MID 60S F COMMON INTO SERN CO AND THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES N-S ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
OK/CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AT 19Z. AIR MASS IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ALREADY OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2500
J/KG. SLOW MOVING IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE AIDING
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF CO/NRN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AND THEN SEWD AS IT CONSOLIDATES INTO A SLOW
MOVING MCS TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION LATER THIS EVENING.
THOUGH STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION MAY REMAIN LIMITED...INTENSE CORES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONG/SEVERE WINDS MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT ONCE STORMS
CONSOLIDATE BEHIND A COMMON OUTFLOW. OTHER ISOLATED...BRIEF-LIVED
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER EAST INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF SERN CO/OK-TX PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP.
..MAINE...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THIS REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE MOIST CONVECTION EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES MAY
BE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS
QUITE WARM/UNSTABLE INTO MAINE...CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS WANING ATTM. GIVEN OVERALL LIMITED
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY ENSUING SEVERE THREAT...HAVE OPTED TO
FORECAST ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
.EVANS.. 06/26/2007
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