SWODY1
SPC AC 042011
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2007
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND TX INTO
THE EXTREME SRN GULF COAST STATES....
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF T.S. BARRY ALONG THE ERN COAST OF LONG ISLAND/SERN CT/RI
ATTM MOVG NNEWD. COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN ONTARIO SWWD THRU NERN
WI AND SERN MN INTO W CENTRAL SD AND N CENTRAL MT. THERE IS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO WITH A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS
SWWD ACROSS NWRN TX PANHANDLE THEN SWD THRU SEN NM AND SWRN TX
INCLUDING THE BIG BEND REGION. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS ONE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN LOWER MI SWD THRU WRN KY MOVG EWD
TOWARDS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVG SEWD
ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO AND MN. SWLY FLOW IS OVER THE NWRN U.S. AHEAD
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTERED OVER 45N 130W.
..HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN TX INTO THE SRN
GULF COAST STATES...
SFC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SERN AND
S CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
JUST S OF MID LEVEL MCV -- BETWEEN SEP/DAL ACCORDING TO LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY -- MOVG JUST S OF E OVER THE METROPLEX REGION.
ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG THE SRN BOUNDARY WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS
WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 1500-1900 J/KG. GIVEN THAT RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6.5 TO 7C/KM...LOOKS LIKE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.
..UPPER OH VALLEY...
MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -14C. THIS HAS CREATED AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM AND MLCAPE IS
AROUND 500 J/KG. ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
..PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
RAISED HAIL PROBABILITIES NWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NC WHERE STRONG
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF WEAK SFC TROUGH. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7C/KM. AGAIN...STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY THRU THIS EVENING.
..PARTS OF WA/ORE INTO NRN ID...
RUC MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE
REGION THRU TONIGHT. AIR MASS HAS SHOWN TO BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ATTM FROM ERN WA INTO NRN ID WHERE MLCAPES ARE APPROACHING 500 J/KG.
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THRU THIS REGION.
THUS...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA
AHEAD OF NEWD MOVG TROUGH AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.
.MCCARTHY.. 06/04/2007
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