DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021727
SWODY2
SPC AC 021726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPR FLOW REGIME WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE ON SUNDAY. STUBBORN UPR LOW
APCHG THE UPR MS VLY WILL REACH THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION BY 12Z MON
AS REMNANT BARRY MOVES THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST. WRN STATES RIDGE WILL CONCURRENTLY BUILD NWD AS THE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN PAC BASIN AMPLIFIES. AT THE SFC...LOW OVER THE UPR MS
VLY REGION WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO LWR MI WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...MID-SOUTH AND SRN PLAINS.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO TX...
A REMNANT CLUSTER OR TWO OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY
OVER PARTS OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND/OR WRN N TX ALONG NOSE OF A
WEAKENING LLJ. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND
APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TIED TO THE UPR LOW WILL LIKELY BE
IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING THE AFTN ANYWHERE FROM THE
SABINE RVR VLY WWD INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
WLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WITH SPEED SHEAR MODEST AT BEST.
BUT...KINEMATIC SET-UP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO
FORWARD PROPAGATE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WITHIN 2000-2500 MLCAPES. ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL TEND TO MOVE ESEWD INTO PARTS OF LA AND THE UPR TX COAST DURING
THE EVE HOURS.

UPSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIURNALLY BACK AND BECOME UPSLOPE
INTO ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL DURING THE MID-AFTN. HEATING OF THIS
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND APPROACH OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP...BOTH ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG BOUNDARIES. ESELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 40-50 KTS OF NWLY FLOW AT H5 WILL BOOST
VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WITH
INITIAL STORMS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TORNADOES. BOTH
NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BECOMING LIKELY. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX /IE HILL COUNTRY-EDWARDS PLATEAU/ BY 12Z MON.

..GRTLKS AND OH/TN VALLEYS...
COMPLEX SFC PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROBABLY WEAKENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS REMNANT BARRY MOVES UP THE ATLC SEABOARD. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINE TO
YIELD 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE AND ONLY
MODEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IN
LATER OTLKS.

.RACY.. 06/02/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.