SWODY2
SPC AC 081738
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AND CNTRL NM
THROUGH SWRN TX...
..SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
EJECTS NEWD INTO SERN CANADA OVER TOP OVER ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NERN U.S. AND SWWD INTO THE
SRN STATES WHERE IT WILL STALL. TRAILING TX PORTION OF FRONT WILL
BEGIN LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT AS LEE
TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS
SUGGEST AN IMPULSE NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL EJECT EWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CNTRL STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SETTLES INTO
SRN CA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY SHIFT SWD INTO PARTS OF ND AND MN IN
RESPONSE TO IMPULSE FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH OVER S CNTRL CANADA.
..NM AND SWRN TX...
MOISTURE RESIDING OVER SRN HALF OF TX S OF FRONT WILL RETURN NWWD
INTO PARTS OF FAR WRN TX AND NM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SELY LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. HOWEVER...THIS RETURN OF MOISTURE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF CLOUDS WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT
INSTABILITY IN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. WHERE SURFACE HEATING DOES
DEVELOP...MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD NEWD. BELT OF 30 KT MID LEVEL
FLOW ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP
UPDRAFT ROTATION. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
..CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AS SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. THE
CNTRL PLAINS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS DUE
TO PRESENCE OF EML...WEAK FORCING AND RISING HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY.
AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN THAT REGION. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS NWD INTO NEB. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED
REGIME COULD SURVIVE AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE AXIS OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER PARTS OF
NEB ON NOSE OF DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
..SRN STATES...
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF STALLED BOUNDARY WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DESPITE THE WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A THREAT
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED OVER PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.
..ND AND MRN MN...
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF FRONT THAT MAY MOVE
INTO NRN ND AND MN. BELT OF STRONGER WLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEP SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KT. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED BY MODEST INSTABILITY.
.DIAL.. 06/08/2007
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