SWODY2
SPC AC 111721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN GA SWD INTO CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA...
..SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL LIFT EWD INTO SRN
CANADA/NRN PLAINS...WHILE A WEAK...BUT COMPACT...LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER AZ IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO CO DURING THE PERIOD.
ALSO...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE SWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/MID
ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE SERN STATES...WHICH WILL AMPLIFY A WEAK
RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE
FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...THOUGH A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT SHIFTS
SSWWD ACROSS SC/GA AND INTO NRN FL.
..NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
CONVECTION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DUE TO THE TYPICAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM AND WEAKENING LOW
LEVEL JET. DESPITE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A SUPERCELL OR TWO. ALTHOUGH HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SMALL MCS CLUSTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER THAN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
..GA AND NRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...
WILL EXIST SOUTH OF SWD MOVING FRONT. WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STORMS...AN ORGANIZED SWD MOVING MCS/COLD POOL MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD
BE GREATER IF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL FL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SEA BREEZE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS.
.IMY.. 06/11/2007
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