DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121724
SWODY2
SPC AC 121722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KS...WRN OK AND FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA...

..SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY...AS A BLOCKING HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM ERN TX NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...WHILE A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

..CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
BACK DOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR NRN FL
PANHANDLE...IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA
BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING SWD INTO
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...AND THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS CONVECTION
MAY STABILIZE AIR MASS TOO MUCH FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WED.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWEEPING SEWD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S...ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 70S WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. IF STORMS DEVELOP...STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK NWD INTO CENTRAL KS...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...AND A WEAK ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOCATED PRIMARILY
WEST OF FRONT/INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY 20-25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WEAK SHEAR INDICATES THE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END. HOWEVER... VEERING WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY MAXIMUM...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.

..ERN NEB NWD INTO SERN ND/WRN MN...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE TROUGH. MORNING CLOUDS AND REMNANT
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND REDUCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING SWWD INTO THE REGION AND
WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WEAK CONVERGENCE/DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO VERY ISOLATED WIND/HAIL.

..SRN MS/SWRN AL...
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...MID LEVEL
NWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS MS/AL. SLOW NWD ADVECTION OF
RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MS/SWRN AL. FORCING ATTM IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK...THOUGH IF STORMS DEVELOP...SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

.IMY.. 06/12/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.