SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011609
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE MO INTO EXTREME ERN IA...W CNTRL/NW
IL...SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011609Z - 011815Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER/LOBE LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY IS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION NOW SPREADING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA.
ACTIVITY APPEARS MOSTLY BASED IN ELEVATED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW...EMANATING FROM DRIER ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO
BE CONTRIBUTING TO CURRENT WEAKENING TRENDS.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF TRAILING SURFACE WIND SHIFT/REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS
BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. AS INHIBITION WEAKENS...MIXED LAYER
CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG SEEMS POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON.
AND...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. A SEASONABLY STRONG BELT OF FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTIONS AND SHEAR
PROFILES...CONTRIBUTING TO AN ORGANIZING LINE OF STORMS WITH WIND
DAMAGE/HAIL POTENTIAL. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
AND JUST AHEAD OF LINE ...PARTICULARLY IN STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...LIKELY SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF BURLINGTON IA
BY 18-19Z. THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME ENHANCED
AND SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
.KERR.. 06/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
40449197 41529254 42259259 42899117 42849010 42308920
40928887 39728936 39139069 39249191
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