MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0964

ACUS11 KWNS 021644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021644
WIZ000-021815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021644Z - 021815Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS ERN
WI. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER SW MN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN MOST OF WI...ERN IA AND NRN
IL. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS IN ERN WI WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG THE WRN SIDE
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
MILWAUKEE WI WSR-88D VWP WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY
EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE I-41 CORRIDOR NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND INTO THE
GREEN BAY WI AREA AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...REGIONAL VWPS SHOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT BELOW 2 KM WITH
ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

.BROYLES.. 06/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...

42698778 42578823 42588880 43618880 44188872 44758844
44818801 44558749

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