MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0967

ACUS11 KWNS 021942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021942
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021942Z - 022115Z

ISO TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN CO/NRN NM FRONT RANGE SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY TRANSLATE SEWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BENEATH MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT. THE AREA
IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE AIDED IN ISO TSTM
INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM NEAR COS TO RTN. VIS IMAGERY
INDICATES ADDITIONAL CU/TCU HAVE ALSO FORMED EWD ALONG THE RATON
MESA. WITH SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND MODEST
INSTABILITY /WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG/...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE SEWD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
GREATER INSTABILITY /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60 DEGREES/ WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FARTHER S...ROUGHLY FROM A CNM TO LBB TO CDS LINE
INVOF WASHED OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN PALTRY /GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS BELOW 3 KM PER
TCU PROFILER/. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR TO BOTH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S/SE AND POTENTIAL TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...25 TO 30 KTS OF W/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.GRAMS.. 06/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

38910349 37860257 37030219 35820184 35060173 33950227
33470324 34580437 35960484 37900500 39060463

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