MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0980

ACUS11 KWNS 031723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031723
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-031900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...NE IL...UPPER MI AND NW IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031723Z - 031900Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN
UPPER MI...ERN WI...NE IL AND NW IND. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW THIS AFTERNOON.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER SE WI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS ECNTRL IL. A LAKE BREEZE IS LOCATED ON THE WRN SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THESE TWO
CONVERGENCE ZONES. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WI MOVES SLOWLY EWD
THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...A BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXISTS ACROSS SRN IA...NRN IL AND SE WI AND THIS IS
CREATING ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL

.BROYLES.. 06/03/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...

40108792 40938848 42428905 43628914 45168887 46128810
46228743 45798696 44898747 43988769 42868773 41718749
40378698

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