SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031742
TXZ000-NMZ000-031915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031742Z - 031915Z
TSTM INITIATION SHOULD COMMENCE SWD FROM THE SACRAMENTO TO THE
GUADALUPE/DAVIS MTNS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AN EVOLUTION TO
SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SERN NM/FAR W TX AS ACTIVITY MOVES SEWD
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
TRANSPECOS REGION. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THESE
AREAS BY 19Z.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED MID/UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE
CENTERED OVER SWRN NM. THIS HAS AIDED IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MOST RECENTLY OVER
NERN OTERO/SWRN CHAVES COUNTIES IN NM. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CU
INCREASING FARTHER S TOWARDS THE GUADALUPE MTNS. GIVEN LARGE
SCALE-ASCENT AND CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING...IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
TSTM INITIATION IS IMMINENT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK AS INFERRED FROM REGIONAL
PROFILERS...30 TO 40 KTS OF WLY FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FARTHER EAST...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS RETARDED SURFACE HEATING SOMEWHAT
THIS MORNING. BUT AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND RECENTLY WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO GREATER WARMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
TRANSPECOS REGION. MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MAF/DRT
SUGGEST A RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. TSTM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOWARDS 21Z
ALONG A SERIES OF WNW TO ESE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/STATIONARY
FRONT. GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EXPECT A RAPID EVOLUTION TO SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
.GRAMS.. 06/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
31030478 31780554 32400593 32860598 33270555 33400525
33380443 33070310 32590231 31920108 30860135 30520196
30390305
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