SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031806
NCZ000-VAZ000-031930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...NE NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031806Z - 031930Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
SE VA AND NE NC. A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE APPEAR TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREATS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SC AND A MOIST
AXIS WITH LOWER 70 F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWWD AROUND THE SFC LOW
INTO ERN NC AND FAR SE VA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES ENOUGH
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE LOCATED ACROSS NERN NC. REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS IN SE VA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NC SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT MAY EXPAND NWD
ACROSS SE VA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND BANDS ROTATE NNWWD AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.
.BROYLES.. 06/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
35277559 35767718 35747852 36337879 37117805 37237683
36917572 36237521
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