SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031842
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-032015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL NM...SERN CO...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031842Z - 032015Z
SCT TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SRN CO/NRN NM SHOULD
SPREAD/DEVELOP S/SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER CNTRL CO. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
AS OF 1830Z...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A CLUSTER OF SCT
TSTMS ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. FARTHER SE...CU DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE RATON MESA INTO THE NWRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS AREA CORRESPONDS WELL WITH 12Z NAM/GFS QPF SIGNALS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE GENERALLY HELD IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG /PER
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS
ANEMIC /AOB 10 KTS/...20 TO 30 KTS OF 500 MB FLOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
.GRAMS.. 06/03/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
36630508 37570482 38180434 38000368 37420280 36670234
35670212 34690234 34690333 34730383 35090465 35610506
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