SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041643
LAZ000-TXZ000-041815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041643Z - 041815Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
SRN LA EXTENDING WNWWD INTO SE TX LEFT OVER FROM AN MCS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT THIS MORNING
ALONG THIS AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CUMULUS
EXPANDING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX. THE AREA IS UNCAPPED ACCORDING TO
THE LAKE CHARLES 12Z SOUNDING WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO
50 KT RANGE. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. A BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE
PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
.BROYLES.. 06/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
30399064 29759040 29439120 29639342 30209516 30779642
31179668 31649641 31449524 30849410 30569283 30449148
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