SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042036
NEZ000-SDZ000-042200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...ERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042036Z - 042200Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NEB AND SRN SD OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE. LARGE
HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL FOR A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MOVING
SSEWD ACROSS FAR NRN NEB AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ALONG A MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S F
CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SSEWD ACROSS FAR SRN SD AND ERN NEB WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR ACCORDING TO REGIONAL PROFILER DATA IS RELATIVELY
WEAK. HOWEVER...ADEQUATE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...500 MB TEMPS OF -14C
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CORES.
.BROYLES.. 06/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
43650014 43799844 41449600 40229676 40329830 42810075
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