MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1023

ACUS11 KWNS 061644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061644
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-061845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061644Z - 061845Z

A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN FL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG
WITH 7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WEAK E-W ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL...AND A FEW
SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE. THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING EVIDENT FARTHER N NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE. THE 12Z RAOB DATA FROM TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSON FL
SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND 35 TO 40 KT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. UPPER FLOW HAS SINCE BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AS ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD WITH HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE
OVER NRN FL. WV IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DRYING
OVER THE SERN STATES...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...SPREADING SEWD TOWARD NRN FL. THE WEAKENING MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY
SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN
PLACE...STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DIAL.. 06/06/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

30548635 30868633 31008587 30858337 30558174 30008139
29398124 29078188 29178267 29598319 30208388 30108457
29968500 30448605

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